Sunday, November 02, 2008

Wandering amidst Economics, Politics and Memories

It has been a month since I wrote the last post. There has been a lot of discussion amidst friends and foes if the economic crises would continue. Initially it was about the bailout package and its value etc. Few would have believed its ability to create the magic of multiplier effect that Keynes had suggested. Obvious reason was that the money was not going to the masses. If someone had an article worth Rs10, booked it for a sale of Rs 100 and recovered only Rs 40, he could show it a profit of 30 or a loss of 60.
In a different system, it would have been advisable to ask the management to show a profit of 30 and distribute it accordingly, but not in the Greatlands. People had muscle (and money) power to extract the so called ‘loss’ of 60 from a lame economy. As the losses reflected were more due to greed and less for market factors (my belief, contrary to the picture created)- there was no scope of a multiplier effect and the money must have settled in a few coffers by now.
It reminds me of the hearing episode in the movie- Scent of a woman. In the current case the fattest kid (son of BIG DADDY) in the class, farted in the class, spoiled his trousers and the classroom too. The noble class teacher blamed the Black guy in the class for the rotten smell, spanked his bottom, asked him to clean the class and gave his shorts too to the fat guy. The mockery was diluted through diverting the attention to ON PATH TO WRITING OF A HISTORY saga. I am a disbeliever, would wait to see if the history actually gets created. Anyway a small percentage of the bailout package can be spent to keep the two parties happy.
Having been in Government for a decently long period I have seen the business-politics connection functioning from quite closely and can't resist the temptation to create some illogical and irritating mails, so am continuing with the same.
There were complaining voices from a country about lack of sensitivity of the world to their current crises (unlike the way they had been ‘kind enough’ in case of crises elsewhere in the world). Firstly, a majority of the crises like those in the SE Asia were your own creation, beginning from sudden withdrawal of capital based on internal policy changes. Secondly, the then world geo-politics did not allow you to pass your allies into the lap of the other countries. No other country has been so frantic to treat the world as its backyard and thus need not bother today. Thirdly, there was shear business value for the companies to invest in those places. The progressive response shown by your erstwhile competitor and in SE Asia is a pointer to that.
Today, what value does one get investing in a problem prone area? Firstly, tax payer’s money is being wasted in killing and maiming the world. Secondly, the job which costs 80000 $ in Greatlands costs Rs 4 lakh (nearly 8000$, though with 80% of the fineness of the job) elsewhere. Not many people would like to spend 10 times for a slightly better job done and happily hand over the market profits to a competitor thus. Once you are already non-competitive as a production nation, the intellectual property was the saving grace. But that will require an honest pegging of the salaries to those across the world.
Today, the lack of liquidity is only the result of over 80% finances being trapped with 20 % people who are insecure of the continuation of the party.
I will go back to a morning of the year 1991 when one of cousins of my mother was getting engaged and in a typical Hindu family gathering over 200 people were present and watching the news of pounding of a country by another and the intermittent responses by the 'scuds'. The world was told to believe that it was 'necessary' and a dictator who had atom bomb proof palaces and 50 story mansions under the ground (based on ‘secret intelligence reports’ of the invading country) had been challenged by a hero to prevent the making of some weapons of mass destruction.
An ailing economy and the defense industry had been saved thus (some perpetrators of warfare might have believed then). The same story looked a disgraceful lie when no WMD was ever found, UN and its officials had been disgraced (for being upright) and another war was forced. But this time the results could not revive the economy, and the defense expenditure driven economy flattened as the world could see through- that the news of more countries trying to build WMD was nothing more than trash.
The hero who had actually rebuild that economy was also shown his place when his wife could not get the nomination for the elections to the post he had held. Many things of the past can be reconstructed from the current events. The revival would have been neat and clean, without any illegal profits to any particular group or business. It would have been based on good policies and meticulous execution.
So elections funding for what, if you could not build ‘right’ contacts sitting in a black house? Who cares for your individual brilliance if that is not sellable. Funds are for those who are amenable, who know to bend and stoop and dance to the tunes of the pied pipers. The gossips about ‘matching the stature of JFK’ are stories and media campaigns alone and are meaningless. In reality someone with a bigger stature was rubbished with his wife by the owners of media and money. They have been left in cold to pay their debts.
It is amazing to see how the fate of a woman is interlinked to the man in her life. One may go to the black house if that man is able to take her there or one could be stopped at the door if people don’t want 'him' there again.
I talked of the year 1991 somewhere above. Almost 18 years since then, one span of the RAHU Mahadasha. I never knew what was forcing me to do so when I had walked out from the building of the biggest (and best) school in my hometown for having not carried the registration fee. My father was in Mathura, principal of a PG college and no one else in our home kept money with them. My mother, despite being a professor herself, never kept more than the rickshaw fare with her. It would have been meaningless to ask money from her. I had changed my school for the strangest of reasons.
Later I had learnt some amazing things about my horoscope when I had joined astrology classes while writing the IAS examination. A good student as I was, I passed the testing time with firm resolve. But it has been tiring 18 years and I wish from the depth of my heart for the Rahu Mahadasha to get over (Jan 2009) so that I may move ahead. Waiting for the benefic Jupiter to come in days ahead !!!

3 comments:

dheeraj pandey said...

Rahu mahadasa kei khatam hone kee treat to milegi na !!

Puneet Yadav said...

nahin! Guru ke shuru hone ki mil sakti hai subject to desired outcomes :)

Ranjan said...

Ha ha...
Hamesha se jo log power mai hai unako freedom hai ki kisako blaim diya jaye, kisaka pant utarvaya jaye. However it depends 'How ethical they are'. These days 'money' is power. And if one has power, can earn more money.
The bad part is, people are driven by feeling of 'insecurity', hence , have been utilized as 'resources'. So the human factors are ignored. An example, there is a price hike in food items, but there is no shortage in production, and we have to earn and pay more to fulfill our requirement.
Rahu effect !! 18 years but i believe you must be having antardasha of guru, shukra and budh ( your achievements indicates that)...
Please do write frequently!!